A big jump? More like a mental leap.

Andrew Sullivan’s loose grasp on reality is well known even by his own colleagues, but it’s even nicer when his errors are mathematically provable.  Case in point: HCR passed the House on March 21st and today (March 25th) Andrew Sullivan wrote this:

Since HCR passed, a big jump in Obama’s approval ratings. Maybe a fluke. But he remains more popular than Ronald Reagan was at this point in his term of office – and has been ahead of Reagan now for three months. The approval graph closest to Obama’s has been Reagan’s in recent history.

Surprised that I’d not heard about this “big jump”  I did what Sullivan must not have done and looked at the data, which is in 3-day rolling averages:

Date Range Approve Disapprove
Mar 12-14 49 44
Mar 13-15 48 44
Mar 14-16 46 47
Mar 15-17 46 48
Mar 16-18 47 47
Mar 17-20 50 43
Mar 18-21 50 43
Mar 20-22 51 43
Mar 21-23 50 44
Mar 22-24 51 42

Since HCR passed late at night on March 21st and Pelosi did not have the votes until that afternoon (that is, the public would not have assumed passage) it seems like the window for “since HCR passed” would be March 17-20 (50% Approval) versus March 22-24 (51% Approval).

For the record, I think it will take at least a week or two to see the true impact of HCR on The One’s approval rating.  But while I can’t recall ever hearing Sullivan refer to Obama’s descent from 69% (Jan 22-24 ’09) to 46% (Mar 8-10 ’10) as a “big slide”, his criteria for a “big jump” is now pegged at 1%.  I wonder what he’d call it if Obama went up 2%?

Date Range Approval Disapproval
Mar 12-14 2010 49 44
Mar 13-15 2010 48 44
Mar 14-16 2010 46 47
Mar 15-17 2010 46 48
Mar 16-18 2010 47 47
Mar 17-20 2010 50 43
Mar 18-21 2010 50 43
Mar 20-22 2010 51 43
Mar 21-23 2010 50 44
Mar 22-24 2010 51 42
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